At the same moment as the PAN announced that its review of national party rolls resulted in a dramatic downward revision of membership numbers from 1,868,567 to 368,253, MORENA, the López Obrador “movement” organization officially filed for registration as a political party. Combined, this is something of a shakeup for the PAN and the PRD (off of which MORENA split), the country’s two traditional opposition parties (despite the PAN’s 12 years in the presidency). Both parties have suffered from serious infighting and internal ideological differences and the PRI’s return to the presidency owes much to the inability of either party to coalesce around a compelling vision and coherent political strategy.
Some, particularly Aguachile, feel that the PRD will, in the long run, be stronger without López Obrador and I am inclined to agree. However, If MORENA organizes and shows electoral strength in the 2015 midterm elections, it will likely exert influence into the 2018 presidential election – if not, I suspect it comes to resemble one of the country’s minor ‘coalition’ parties that survive by spinning minimal votes into maximum appointed positions.
For the PAN, particularly after the disastrous 2012 presidential election, it is painfully obvious that the party is in need of an overhaul, ethically, politically, and strategically.